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Tuesday, April 14, 2020

GPA Project Headlines April 1-14, 2020











GLOBAL
"Global actors might use the coronavirus to reshape the world without a war"--Belarus President

Can We Trust The WHO?
LOCK STEP: This is No Futuristic Scenario
Reactions to the Corona Virus Hint of a Wider Agenda
Searching for Truth in What We are being Told About Covid-19
A New World Is Being Born: What Will It be?
A Viral Pandemic or A Crime Scene?
The Hunt for Patient Zero
All Roads Lead to Dark Winter

Trump halts WHO funding as world scrambles to contain coronavirus pandemic

US accused of 'modern piracy' after diversion of masks meant for Europe
US method of sourcing protective gear baffling world amid coronavirus crisis
Mossad sneaking COVID-19 medical stocks - ordered by others - into Israel: Senior official
Researchers warn the COVID-19 lockdown will take its own toll on health
US food workers are in danger. That threatens all of us
US passes virus buck to WHO amid own failure
Wimbledon cancelled first time since 1945
US coronavirus deaths may be lower than feared, new data suggests
Coronavirus: Donald Trump speaks of mutiny as New York’s Andrew Cuomo says president is not a king
Kushner’s team seeks national coronavirus surveillance system
Coronavirus latest: US seeks to ‘fundamentally change’ World Health Organisation
Vancouver protesters call coronavirus fake news and say distancing rule should be defied, appalling health authorities
Trump working on plan to lift coronavirus restrictions, asserts ‘total authority’ over state governments
Coronavirus: in rebuff to Donald Trump, US states team up to plan reopening economy
Google releases location data to show if coronavirus lockdowns working in 131 countries
Coronavirus lockdowns must last six weeks to bring pandemic under control: researchers

Chinese military scientists hope to test coronavirus vaccine abroad
Chinese firms accelerate production of hydroxychloroquine, other APIs to meet global needs
China has no intention to take over US role
Chinese ventilator makers desperate for parts as global demand for machines hits 1 million

China rolls out the Health Silk Road



FINANCIAL
ENERGY 
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
Plans to seize territories of other planets harm international cooperation, says Roscosmos

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Sunday, April 5, 2020

World at risk of second Great Depression due to coronavirus, says Chinese central bank

Measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 are likely to take a serious economic toll. Photo: Xinhua
South China Morning Post 
China’s central bank has warned the international community to be alert to the risk of a “Great Depression” in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak, although it said the chances of this occurring was low.
“The possibility of a ‘Great Depression’ cannot be ruled out if the epidemic continues to run out of control, and the deterioration of the real economy is compounded by an eruption of financial risks,” Zhu Jun, director of the international department of the People's Bank of China, was quoted by local media as saying last week.
The difficult trade-off between the need to protect public health and the economic cost of shutting almost all face-to-face human activity has prompted warnings from many economists that the economic shock from Covid-19 may be more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis or even the Great Depression.
The latter, which began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929, saw credit markets freezing up, massive bankruptcies, US GDP falling by more than 10 per cent and unemployment rates that touched 25 per cent.
Professor Terence Chong Tai-leung from the department of economics at the Chinese University in Hong Kong, said he was optimistic the global contraction would not be as severe as the 1930s slump.
“Governments are likely to decide to ease off restrictions by July. They need to prevent disruptions that would cause food shortages, social unrest or greater damage to human lives and the economy than if the restrictions continued,” Chong said. “The economy will naturally rebound when restrictions are lifted.”
But there is evidence the major toll this crisis is already having a massive impact on the US employment situation. US initial jobless claims of 6.65 million last week, up from 3.3 million the week previous week, highlighted fears of mass unemployment
Currently global markets are already down 35 per cent, credit markets have seized up to 2008 levels. Even mainstream financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley expect US GDP to fall by an annualised rate of 6 per cent in the first quarter, and by 24 per cent to 30 per cent in the second.
Moody’s has warned that 30 per cent of US home loans may stop being serviced as a result of job losses and a lack of support for small businesses.
Zhu from the Chinese central bank said the biggest market uncertainty came from the fact that central banks’ swift and forceful actions could not directly help to control the epidemic but stopping its spread would help market confidence.
He said the policies of advanced economies had helped stabilise stock market sentiment but hidden risks continued to exist in the global financial system.
For example, stock markets in developed countries have been rising for many years so their valuations are under pressure.
If the market panics due to the intensifying impact of the epidemic, that could lead to tighter market liquidity, triggering market contagion across different asset classes.
The corporate sector, which has a relatively high level of debt, could also see an increase of defaults on banks’ non-performing assets and corporate bonds.
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, said the public-health response in advanced economies has fallen far short of what is needed to contain the pandemic and so the risk of a “greater depression” was rising by the day.
He warned that if a series of virus-related negative supply shocks reduced potential growth, the fiscal response of many countries could hit a wall as they would not be able to borrow enough in their own currency.
“After the 2008 crash, a forceful (though delayed) response pulled the global economy back from the abyss. We may not be so lucky this time,” Roubini said. “Who will bail out governments, corporations, banks and households in emerging markets?”
Despite a US$349 billion government backstop, US banks are refusing to lend to struggling small businesses at 0.5 per cent, and choosing to make the loans at 1.0 per cent instead.
Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank said, in reality these financial packages can be hard to access, and may not be really effective.
“That is a Great Depression happening in the blink of an eye,” Every said. “Who knows where the damage will spread to, and when, if we are going to see 25 per cent unemployment across much of the developed world for an extended period?”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3078519/world-risk-second-great-depression-due-coronavirus-says
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